Tuesday, February 11, 2003

I don't know that this is fraught per se, so with a nod to Mr. Infield-Harm, I declare this news story "rife".

Oscar nominations are out. Last year I saw literally every movie with a major nomination by Oscar night. This year I've seen practically nothing. But my totally uninformed early handicapping is thus:

  • Best Actor: Brody's got no shot, Caine's got almost no shot, and the other three are legitimate contenders. I thought Cage was wonderful, but Day-Lewis' performance was amazing, and I think it'll be rewarded. Jack's won enough.
  • Best Actress: Lane and Hayek win by being nominated--Frida was a tiny film on the radar, and I thought Unfaithful came out in 1998. Probably ditto for Moore, so this is a two-horse race between Kidman and Zellwegger. My gut instinct is Kidman, but if this is that one year in ten when a totally unknown film surprises, there's a chance this goes to Hayek.
  • Best Supporting Actress: I've got no clue here, but maybe Moore gets rewarded as a double nominee.
  • Best Supporting Actor: Wow, this category is filled with heavyweights. Unless Newman or Walken gets a lifetime achievement award, though, I have to think Cooper will be rewarded. Cooper and Day-Lewis are the two actors in recent memory I can remember creating very original characters, and I hope they win for it.
  • Best Director: This has to be the lifetime achievement award for Scorsese, doesn't it? If not, it'll come down to whichever of The Hours and Chicago gains more Best Picture momentum.
  • Best Picture: I think this will come down to Chicago and The Hours. Lord of the Rings has no other major nominations, people had mixed opinions of Gangs of New York, and The Pianist is another very small film. Is Chicago this year's Titanic or this Year's Color Purple? I'm thinking somewhere in between, but my prediction is that it will win Best Picture.

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